Environmental challenge
Editorial
Copyight 1999 Mainichi Daily News
January 6, 1999
At the beginning of the 20th century, the world's population was only 635
million. The global population is expected to reach 6 billion on Oct. 12 this
year. And over the next 50 years, this figure could grow to around 8.9 billion
in spite of abnormal weather caused by global warming.
Will modern civilization be able to continue on the trajectory of expansion
that began with the Roman Empire?
Global warming, the destruction of the ozone layer, the extinction of entire species and the
spread of desertification suggest that there are physical limits to human
expansion. Yet during times of economic uncertainty, the pressure to pursue
expansion increases.
Industrial development and environmental destruction are two sides of the same
coin. Market liberalization and globalization have had unforeseen consequences
for the environment. Japan's decision to begin liberalizing imports of lumber
products in the 1960s contributed to the depredation of tropical rain forests
in the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The mountains of
garbage discarded on reclaimed land in Tokyo Bay are a testament to excessive
consumption paid for by the strong yen.
In the 21st century, Asia will have to discover a path to sustainable
development that achieves a balance between population, natural resources and
industry.
Since Japan's population will peak in 2008 at 127.78 million and then dwindle
to 100.5 million by 2050, and per-capita consumption by Japanese consumers has
already reached the saturation point, it will be possible for Japan to reduce
the pressure that it exerts on
Asia's environment.
However, the conditions prevailing in most Asian countries are different. The
population of Asia as a whole is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.4
percent. Since the number of poor is expected to rise as industries stagnate,
natural resources will come under additional pressure. As
China's population of 1.27 billion earn more money, their consumption of coal,
a dirty energy source, will also surge.
Without a bare minimum level of food, medicine and education, developing
countries will not be able to guarantee decent living standards for their
people -- a
prerequisite to eradicating social inequality, preserving a balance between
development and the ecosystem, and achieving sustainable development. Such
objectives can only be achieved with economic growth of 5 percent a year
between 1996 and 2010. But the advanced industrialized nations will have to cut
back their emissions of contaminants
by 4.4 percent per year over the same period in order to preserve the quality
of the global environment at current levels.
Japan's success in achieving its goal of reducing its average emissions of
carbon dioxide between 2008 and 2012 to 5 percent less than its output in
1990 will determine whether the rest of Asia will be able to develop in a
sustainable manner. Today, Japan's emissions of contaminants per 1 dollar of
industrial output are the lowest in the world. We hope that Japan's efficient
technology for using energy and raw materials can be transferred to
help other countries achieve sustainable development.
As an economic superpower, Japan will have to assert leadership in the area of
environmental protection in order to build an industrial society with a future
and maintain the stability of the Japanese economy.
(From the Mainichi Shimbun, Jan. 5)
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