Panel: Climate Watcher Inadequate
By Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press
Copyright 1999 Associated Press
February 4, 1999
A government advisory panel says it has concerns about the
accuracy of data being used to fuel the intense debate over
possible climate change.
"Deficiencies in the accuracy, quality and continuity of
the records ... place
serious limitations on the confidence that can be placed in the
research
results," the
National Research Council said in a study released Wednesday.
Climate change has become a hot topic with the growing
concern that rising levels of certain
chemicals in the atmosphere could trap additional heat from the
sun, causing
the Earth's temperature to rise. Scientists and politicians on both
sides of the issue regularly trade jabs, citing various studies of
temperature
readings.
"It's very clear we do not have a climate observing system
... This may be a
shock to many people who assume that we do know adequately what's
going on with
the climate, but we don't," said Kevin Trenberth of the National
Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who independently reviewed
the
report.
"We have a weather observing system primarily now and the
big swings in
weather from day to day are easy to catch ... but for climate we
are interested
in more subtle changes from year to year, especially trends,"
Trenberth said.
Maurice Blackmon, a member of the committee that prepared
the
new study, noted that a few years ago the government began
installing new
weather recording systems at airports.
Researchers soon began noticing what seemed like a
climate change but turned out to be merely the instrument change,
said Blackmon, also of the
National Center
for Atmospheric Research.
When instruments are changed without an overlap to compare
their readings,
differences in the devices may result in confusion, he said.
The problem was illustrated just last month when scientists
at the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration and others at the National
Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
announced that last year was the hottest on record but came up with
different
numbers.
Data provided by NASA researchers indicated an average 1998
worldwide
temperature of 58.5 degrees Fahrenheit, while NOAA estimated it at
58.1.
Unlike sciences where strict laboratory
controls are the rule, climate researchers have to rely on
observations
collected in different countries and using differing instruments,
Thomas R.
Karl, chairman of the committee that prepared the report, noted in
his forward.
Karl heads the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Adequate weather and
climate records go back only a bit over a century in the United
States and not
much longer in other countries. During that period, instruments for
measuring
such things as temperature, humidity and wind have changed
constantly.
Problems even occur with the most modern
observing machines, noted Trenberth.
The National Research Council faulted the federal
government for not
coordinating climate studies and failing to have one agency
organize the data
and make sure information is consistent. The National Research
Council is the
research arm of the National Academy of Sciences.
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